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Functions, MET1 2024 VCAA 5

The function  \(h:[0, \infty) \rightarrow R, h(t)=\dfrac{3000}{t+1}\)  models the population of a town after \(t\) years.

  1. Use the model \(h(t)\) to predict the population of the town after four years.   (1 mark)

  2. A new function, \(h_1\), models a population where  \(h_1(0)=h(0)\) but \(h_1\)  decreases at half the rate of \(h\) at any point in time.
  3. State a sequence of two transformations that maps \(h\) to this new model \(h_1\).  (2 marks)

  4. In the town, 100 people were randomly selected and surveyed, with 60 people indicating that they were unhappy with the roads.
    1. Determine an approximate 95% confidence interval for the proportion of people in the town who are unhappy with the roads. Use  \(z=2\) for this confidence interval.  (2 marks)

    2. A new sample of \(n\) people results in the same sample proportion.
    3. Find the smallest value of \(n\) to achieve a standard deviation of  \(\dfrac{\sqrt{2}}{50}\)  for the sample proportion.  (1 mark)

Show Answers Only

a.    \(600\)

b.    \(\text{Vertical dilation by a factor of }\frac{1}{2}\ \text{from the }t\ \text{axis}\)

\(\text{followed by a translation of 1500 units upwards}\)

ci.   \(\left(\dfrac{3}{5}-\dfrac{\sqrt{6}}{25},\ \dfrac{3}{5}+\dfrac{\sqrt{6}}{25}\right)\)

cii.  \(300\)

Show Worked Solution

a.     \(h(4)\) \(=\dfrac{3000}{4+1}\)
    \(=600\)

    

b.     \(h(t)\) \(=3000(t+1)^{-1}\)
  \(h^{\prime}(t)\) \(=\dfrac{-3000}{(t+1)^2}\)
  \(h_1^{\prime}(t)\) \(=\dfrac{1}{2}h^{\prime}(t)\)
    \(=\dfrac{-1500}{(t+1)^2}\)
  \(\therefore\ h_1(t)\) \(=\dfrac{1500}{t+1}\)

\(\text{Vertical dilation by a factor of }\frac{1}{2}\ \text{from the }t\ \text{axis}\)

\(\text{followed by a translation of 1500 units upwards}\)

ci.    \(\hat{p}=\dfrac{60}{100}=\dfrac{3}{5},\quad 1-\hat{p}=\dfrac{2}{5},\quad z=2\)

\(\text{Approx CI}\) \(=\left(\dfrac{3}{5}-2\sqrt{\dfrac{\dfrac{3}{5}\times\dfrac{2}{5}}{100}},\ \dfrac{3}{5}+2\sqrt{\dfrac{\dfrac{3}{5}\times\dfrac{2}{5}}{100}}\right)\)
  \(=\left(\dfrac{3}{5}-\dfrac{2\sqrt{6}}{50},\quad \dfrac{3}{5}+\dfrac{2\sqrt{6}}{50}\right)\)
  \(=\left(\dfrac{3}{5}-\dfrac{\sqrt{6}}{25},\quad \dfrac{3}{5}+\dfrac{\sqrt{6}}{25}\right)\)

  

cii.   \(\sqrt{\dfrac{\hat{P}(1-\hat{P}}{n}}\) \(=\dfrac{\sqrt{2}}{50}\)
  \(\sqrt{\dfrac{\dfrac{3}{5}\times\dfrac{2}{5}}{n}}\) \(=\dfrac{\sqrt{2}}{50}\)
  \(\dfrac{\dfrac{6}{25}}{n}\) \(=\dfrac{2}{2500}\)
  \(n\) \(=\dfrac{6}{25}\times\dfrac{2500}{2}\)
    \(=\dfrac{600}{2}=300\)

Probability, MET2 2022 VCAA 3

Mika is flipping a coin. The unbiased coin has a probability of \(\dfrac{1}{2}\) of landing on heads and \(\dfrac{1}{2}\) of landing on tails.

Let \(X\) be the binomial random variable representing the number of times that the coin lands on heads.

Mika flips the coin five times.

  1.   i. Find \(\text{Pr}(X=5)\).   (1 mark)

     ii. Find \(\text{Pr}(X \geq 2).\) (1 mark)

  2. iii. Find \(\text{Pr}(X \geq 2 | X<5)\), correct to three decimal places.   (2 marks)

  3.  iv. Find the expected value and the standard deviation for \(X\).   (2 marks)

The height reached by each of Mika's coin flips is given by a continuous random variable, \(H\), with the probability density function
  

\(f(h)=\begin{cases} ah^2+bh+c         &\ \ 1.5\leq h\leq 3 \\ \\ 0       &\ \ \text{elsewhere} \\ \end{cases}\)
  

where \(h\) is the vertical height reached by the coin flip, in metres, between the coin and the floor, and \(a, b\) and \(c\) are real constants.

  1.   i. State the value of the definite integral \(\displaystyle\int_{1.5}^3 f(h)\,dh\).   (1 mark)

  2.  ii. Given that \(\text{Pr}(H \leq 2)=0.35\) and \(\text{Pr}(H \geq 2.5)=0.25\), find the values of \(a, b\) and \(c\).   (3 marks)

  3. iii. The ceiling of Mika's room is 3 m above the floor. The minimum distance between the coin and the ceiling is a continuous random variable, \(D\), with probability density function \(g\).
  4. The function \(g\) is a transformation of the function \(f\) given by \(g(d)=f(rd+s)\), where \(d\) is the minimum distance between the coin and the ceiling, and \(r\) and \(s\) are real constants.
  5. Find the values of \(r\) and \(s\).   (1 mark)

  6. Mika's sister Bella also has a coin. On each flip, Bella's coin has a probability of \(p\) of landing on heads and \((1-p)\) of landing on tails, where \(p\) is a constant value between 0 and 1 .
  7. Bella flips her coin 25 times in order to estimate \(p\).
  8. Let \(\hat{P}\) be the random variable representing the proportion of times that Bella's coin lands on heads in her sample.
    1. Is the random variable \(\hat{P}\) discrete or continuous? Justify your answer.   (1 mark)

    2. If \(\hat{p}=0.4\), find an approximate 95% confidence interval for \(p\), correct to three decimal places.   (1 mark)

    3. Bella knows that she can decrease the width of a 95% confidence interval by using a larger sample of coin flips.
    4. If \(\hat{p}=0.4\), how many coin flips would be required to halve the width of the confidence interval found in part c.ii.?   (1 mark)

Show Answers Only

a. i.    `frac{1}{32}`    ii.    `frac{13}{16}`    iii.    `0.806` (3 d.p.)

a. iv    `text{E}(X)=5/2,  text{sd}(X)=\frac{\sqrt{5}}{2}`

b. i.   `1`    ii.    `a=-frac{4}{5},  b=frac{17}{5},  c=-frac{167}{60}`

b. iii. `r=-1,  s=3`

c. i.   `text{Discrete}`   ii.   `(0.208,  0.592)`   iii.   `n=100`

Show Worked Solution

a.i  `X ~ text{Bi}(5 , frac{1}{2})`

`text{Pr}(X = 5) = (frac{1}{2})^5 = frac{1}{32}`
 

a.ii  By CAS:    `text{binomCdf}(5,0.5,2,5)`     `0.8125`

`text{Pr}(X>= 2) = 0.8125 = frac{13}{16}`

  
a.iii  `\text{Pr}(X \geq 2 | X<5)`

`=frac{\text{Pr}(2 <= X < 5)}{\text{Pr}(X < 5)} = frac{\text{Pr}(2 <= X <= 4)}{text{Pr}(X <= 4)}`

  
By CAS: `frac{text{binomCdf}(5,0.5,2,4)}{text{binomCdf}(5,0.5,0,4)}`
 

`= 0.806452 ~~ 0.806` (3 decimal places)
  

a.iv `X ~ text{Bi}(5 , frac{1}{2})`

`text{E}(X) = n xx p= 5 xx 1/2 = 5/2`

`text{sd}(X) =\sqrt{n p(1-p)}=\sqrt((5/2)(1 – 0.5)) = \sqrt{5/4} =\frac{\sqrt{5}}{2}`

  

b.i   `\int_{1.5}^3 f(h) d h = 1`


♦♦ Mean mark (b.i) 40%.
MARKER’S COMMENT: Many students did not evaluate the integral or evaluated incorrectly.

b.ii  By CAS:

`f(h):= a\·\h^2 + b\·\h +c`
 

`text{Solve}( {(\int_{1.5}^2 f(h) d h = 0.35), (\int_{2.5}^3 f(h) d h = 0.25), (\int_{1.5}^3 f(h) d h = 1):})`

`a = -0.8 = frac{-4}{5}, \ b = 3.4 = frac{17}{5},\  c = =-2.78 \dot{3} = frac{-167}{60}`


♦♦ Mean mark (b.ii) 47%.
MARKER’S COMMENT: Many students did not give exact answers.

b.iii  `h + d = 3`

`:.\  f(h) = f(3  –  d) = f(- d + 3)`

`:.\  r = – 1 ` and ` s = 3`


♦♦♦♦ Mean mark (b.iii) 10%.
MARKER’S COMMENT: Many students did not attempt this question.

c.i  `\hat{p}`  is discrete.

The number of coin flips must be zero or a positive integer so  `\hat{p}`  is countable and therefore discrete.
 

c.ii  `\left(\hat{p}-z \sqrt{\frac{\hat{p}(1-\hat{p})}{n}}, \hat{p}+z \sqrt{\frac{\hat{p}(1-\hat{p})}{n}}\right)`

`\left(0.4-1.96 \sqrt{\frac{0.4 \times 0.6}{25}}\ , 0.4-1.96 \sqrt{\frac{0.4 \times 0.6}{25}}\right)`

`\approx(0.208\ ,0.592)`

 

c.iii To halve the width of the confidence interval, the standard deviation needs to be halved.

`:.\  \frac{1}{2} \sqrt{\frac{0.4 \times 0.6}{25}} = \sqrt{\frac{0.4 \times 0.6}{4 xx 25}} = \sqrt{\frac{0.4 \times 0.6}{100}}`

`:.\  n = 100`

She would need to flip the coin 100 times


♦♦♦ Mean mark (c.iii) 30%.
MARKER’S COMMENT: Common incorrect answers were 0, 10, 11, 50 and 101.

Statistics, MET1 2023 VCAA 6

Let \(\hat{P}\) be the random variable that represents the sample proportion of households in a given suburb that have solar panels installed.

From a sample of randomly selected households in a given suburb, an approximate 95% confidence interval for the proportion \(p\) of households having solar panels installed was determined to be (0.04, 0.16).

  1. Find the value of \(\hat{p}\) that was used to obtain this approximate 95% confidence interval.   (1 mark)

Use \(z=2\) to approximate the 95% confidence interval.

  1. Find the size of the sample from which this 95% confidence interval was obtained.   (2 marks)
  2. A larger sample of households is selected, with a sample size four times the original sample.
    The sample proportion of households having solar panels installed is found to be the same.
  3. By what factor will the increased sample size affect the width of the confidence interval?   (1 mark)
Show Answers Only

a.    \(\hat{p}=0.1\)

b.    \(n=100\)

c.    \(\text{The confidence interval width is halved.}\)

Show Worked Solution

a.    \(\text{The span of a confidence interval is symmetrical about}\ \hat{p}.\)

\(\hat{p}=\dfrac{0.04+0.16}{2}=0.1\)


♦ Mean mark (a) 52%.
b.    \(0.06\) \(=2\times\sqrt{\dfrac{0.1\times0.9}{n}}\)
  \(0.03\) \(=\sqrt{\dfrac{0.1\times0.9}{n}}\)
  \((0.03)^2\) \(=\dfrac{0.1\times0.9}{n}\)
  \(0.0009\) \(=\dfrac{9}{100n}\)
  \(n\) \(=\dfrac{9}{100 \times 0.0009}\)
  \(n\) \(=100\)

♦♦ Mean mark (b) 38%.

c.    \(\text{C.I. width} \propto \dfrac{1}{\sqrt{n}}\)

→ \(\text{If}\ \ n\ \Rightarrow \ 4n,\ \ \text{C.I. width}\ \propto \dfrac{1}{\sqrt{4n}} = \dfrac{1}{2\sqrt{n}}\)

→ \(\text{The confidence interval is halved.}\)


♦♦♦ Mean mark (c) 23%.

Statistics, MET1-NHT 2018 VCAA 8

Let  `overset^p`  be the random variable that represents the sample proportions of customers who bring their own shopping bags to a large shopping centre.

From a sample consisting of all customers on a particular day, an approximate 95% confidence interval for the proportion  `p`  of customers who bring their own shopping bags to this large shopping centre was determined to be  `((4853)/(50\ 000) , (5147)/(50\ 000))`.

  1. Find the value of  `hatp`  that was used to obtain this approximate 95% confidence interval.   (1 mark)

     

  2.  Use the fact that  `1.96 = (49)/(25)`  to find the size of the sample from which this approximate 95% confidence interval was obtained.   (2 marks)

     

Show Answers Only
  1. `(1)/(10)`
  2. `40\ 000`
Show Worked Solution

a.    `overset^p – z sqrt((overset^p(1 – overset^p))/(n)) = (4853)/(50\ 000) \ \ , \ \ overset^p + z sqrt((overset^p(1 – overset^p))/(n)) = (5147)/(50\ 000)`

`2 overset^p` `= (4853)/(50\ 000) + (5147)/(50\ 000)`  
`:. \ overset^p` `=1/10`  

 

b.    `(1)/(10) + (49)/(25) sqrt(({1)/{10}(1 – {1}/{10}))/(n)` `= (5147)/(50000)`
`(49)/(25) sqrt((9)/(100n))` `= (147)/(50000)`
`(49)/(25) * (3)/(10) * (1)/(sqrtn)` `= (147)/(25 xx 2000)`
`(147)/(sqrtn)` `= (147)/(200)`
`sqrtn` `= 200`
`:. \ n` `= 40\ 000`

Probability, MET2-NHT 2019 VCAA 19 MC

A random sample of computer users was surveyed about whether the users had played a particular computer game. An approximate 95% confidence interval for the proportion of computer users who had played this game was calculated from this random sample to be (0.6668, 0.8147).

The number of computer users in the sample is closest to

  1.      5
  2.    33
  3.  135
  4.  150
  5.  180
Show Answers Only

`C`

Show Worked Solution

`95% text(C.I.) \ => \ z = 1.96`

`overset^p = (0.6668 + 0.8147)/(2) = 0.74075`

`text(S) text(olve for) \ \n\ \ text{(by CAS):}`

`2 xx 1.96 xx sqrt((0.74075(1 – 0.74075))/(n)) = \ 0.8147 – 0.6668`

`n ≈ 134.9`
 
`=> \ C`