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Probability, MET2 2022 VCAA 3

Mika is flipping a coin. The unbiased coin has a probability of \(\dfrac{1}{2}\) of landing on heads and \(\dfrac{1}{2}\) of landing on tails.

Let \(X\) be the binomial random variable representing the number of times that the coin lands on heads.

Mika flips the coin five times.

  1.   i. Find \(\text{Pr}(X=5)\).   (1 mark)

     ii. Find \(\text{Pr}(X \geq 2).\) (1 mark)

  2. iii. Find \(\text{Pr}(X \geq 2 | X<5)\), correct to three decimal places.   (2 marks)

  3.  iv. Find the expected value and the standard deviation for \(X\).   (2 marks)

The height reached by each of Mika's coin flips is given by a continuous random variable, \(H\), with the probability density function
  

\(f(h)=\begin{cases} ah^2+bh+c         &\ \ 1.5\leq h\leq 3 \\ \\ 0       &\ \ \text{elsewhere} \\ \end{cases}\)
  

where \(h\) is the vertical height reached by the coin flip, in metres, between the coin and the floor, and \(a, b\) and \(c\) are real constants.

  1.   i. State the value of the definite integral \(\displaystyle\int_{1.5}^3 f(h)\,dh\).   (1 mark)

  2.  ii. Given that \(\text{Pr}(H \leq 2)=0.35\) and \(\text{Pr}(H \geq 2.5)=0.25\), find the values of \(a, b\) and \(c\).   (3 marks)

  3. iii. The ceiling of Mika's room is 3 m above the floor. The minimum distance between the coin and the ceiling is a continuous random variable, \(D\), with probability density function \(g\).
  4. The function \(g\) is a transformation of the function \(f\) given by \(g(d)=f(rd+s)\), where \(d\) is the minimum distance between the coin and the ceiling, and \(r\) and \(s\) are real constants.
  5. Find the values of \(r\) and \(s\).   (1 mark)

  6. Mika's sister Bella also has a coin. On each flip, Bella's coin has a probability of \(p\) of landing on heads and \((1-p)\) of landing on tails, where \(p\) is a constant value between 0 and 1 .
  7. Bella flips her coin 25 times in order to estimate \(p\).
  8. Let \(\hat{P}\) be the random variable representing the proportion of times that Bella's coin lands on heads in her sample.
    1. Is the random variable \(\hat{P}\) discrete or continuous? Justify your answer.   (1 mark)

    2. If \(\hat{p}=0.4\), find an approximate 95% confidence interval for \(p\), correct to three decimal places.   (1 mark)

    3. Bella knows that she can decrease the width of a 95% confidence interval by using a larger sample of coin flips.
    4. If \(\hat{p}=0.4\), how many coin flips would be required to halve the width of the confidence interval found in part c.ii.?   (1 mark)

Show Answers Only

a. i.    `frac{1}{32}`    ii.    `frac{13}{16}`    iii.    `0.806` (3 d.p.)

a. iv    `text{E}(X)=5/2,  text{sd}(X)=\frac{\sqrt{5}}{2}`

b. i.   `1`    ii.    `a=-frac{4}{5},  b=frac{17}{5},  c=-frac{167}{60}`

b. iii. `r=-1,  s=3`

c. i.   `text{Discrete}`   ii.   `(0.208,  0.592)`   iii.   `n=100`

Show Worked Solution

a.i  `X ~ text{Bi}(5 , frac{1}{2})`

`text{Pr}(X = 5) = (frac{1}{2})^5 = frac{1}{32}`
 

a.ii  By CAS:    `text{binomCdf}(5,0.5,2,5)`     `0.8125`

`text{Pr}(X>= 2) = 0.8125 = frac{13}{16}`

  
a.iii  `\text{Pr}(X \geq 2 | X<5)`

`=frac{\text{Pr}(2 <= X < 5)}{\text{Pr}(X < 5)} = frac{\text{Pr}(2 <= X <= 4)}{text{Pr}(X <= 4)}`

  
By CAS: `frac{text{binomCdf}(5,0.5,2,4)}{text{binomCdf}(5,0.5,0,4)}`
 

`= 0.806452 ~~ 0.806` (3 decimal places)
  

a.iv `X ~ text{Bi}(5 , frac{1}{2})`

`text{E}(X) = n xx p= 5 xx 1/2 = 5/2`

`text{sd}(X) =\sqrt{n p(1-p)}=\sqrt((5/2)(1 – 0.5)) = \sqrt{5/4} =\frac{\sqrt{5}}{2}`

  

b.i   `\int_{1.5}^3 f(h) d h = 1`


♦♦ Mean mark (b.i) 40%.
MARKER’S COMMENT: Many students did not evaluate the integral or evaluated incorrectly.

b.ii  By CAS:

`f(h):= a\·\h^2 + b\·\h +c`
 

`text{Solve}( {(\int_{1.5}^2 f(h) d h = 0.35), (\int_{2.5}^3 f(h) d h = 0.25), (\int_{1.5}^3 f(h) d h = 1):})`

`a = -0.8 = frac{-4}{5}, \ b = 3.4 = frac{17}{5},\  c = =-2.78 \dot{3} = frac{-167}{60}`


♦♦ Mean mark (b.ii) 47%.
MARKER’S COMMENT: Many students did not give exact answers.

b.iii  `h + d = 3`

`:.\  f(h) = f(3  –  d) = f(- d + 3)`

`:.\  r = – 1 ` and ` s = 3`


♦♦♦♦ Mean mark (b.iii) 10%.
MARKER’S COMMENT: Many students did not attempt this question.

c.i  `\hat{p}`  is discrete.

The number of coin flips must be zero or a positive integer so  `\hat{p}`  is countable and therefore discrete.
 

c.ii  `\left(\hat{p}-z \sqrt{\frac{\hat{p}(1-\hat{p})}{n}}, \hat{p}+z \sqrt{\frac{\hat{p}(1-\hat{p})}{n}}\right)`

`\left(0.4-1.96 \sqrt{\frac{0.4 \times 0.6}{25}}\ , 0.4-1.96 \sqrt{\frac{0.4 \times 0.6}{25}}\right)`

`\approx(0.208\ ,0.592)`

 

c.iii To halve the width of the confidence interval, the standard deviation needs to be halved.

`:.\  \frac{1}{2} \sqrt{\frac{0.4 \times 0.6}{25}} = \sqrt{\frac{0.4 \times 0.6}{4 xx 25}} = \sqrt{\frac{0.4 \times 0.6}{100}}`

`:.\  n = 100`

She would need to flip the coin 100 times


♦♦♦ Mean mark (c.iii) 30%.
MARKER’S COMMENT: Common incorrect answers were 0, 10, 11, 50 and 101.

Statistics, MET2 2019 VCAA 4

The Lorenz birdwing is the largest butterfly in Town A.

The probability density function that describes its life span, `X`, in weeks, is given by
 

`f(x) = {(4/625 (5x^3 - x^4), quad 0 <= x <= 5),(0, quad text(elsewhere)):}`
 

  1. Find the mean life span of the Lorenz birdwing butterfly.  (2 marks)
  2. In a sample of 80 Lorenz birdwing butterflies, how many butterflies are expected to live longer than two weeks, correct to the nearest integer?  (2 marks)
  3. What is the probability that a Lorenz birdwing butterfly lives for at least four weeks, given that it lives for at least two weeks, correct to four decimal places?  (2 marks)

The wingspans of Lorenz birdwing butterflies in Town A are normally distributed with a mean of 14.1 cm and a standard deviation of 2.1 cm.

  1. Find the probability that a randomly selected Lorenz birdwing butterfly in Town A has a wingspan between 16 cm and 18 cm, correct to four decimal places.  (1 mark)
  2. A Lorenz birdwing butterfly is considered to be very small if its wingspan is in the smallest 5% of all the Lorenz birdwing butterflies in Town A.

     

    Find the greatest possible wingspan, in centimetres, for a very small Lorenz birdwing butterfly in Town A, correct to one decimal place.  (1 mark)

Each year, a detailed study is conducted on a random sample of 36 Lorenz birdwing butterflies in Town A.

A Lorenz birdwing butterfly is considered to be very large if its wingspan is greater than 17.5 cm. The probability that the wingspan of any Lorenz birdwing butterfly in Town A is greater than 17.5 cm is 0.0527, correct to four decimal places.

    1. Find the probability that three or more of the butterflies, in a random sample of 36 Lorenz birdwing butterflies from Town A, are very large, correct to four decimal places.  (1 mark)
    2. The probability that `n` or more butterflies, in a random sample of 36 Lorenz birdwing butterflies from Town A, are very large is less than 1%.

       

      Find the smallest value of `n`, where `n` is an integer.  (2 marks)

    3. For random samples of 36 Lorenz birdwing butterflies in Town A, `hat p` is the random variable that represents the proportion of butterflies that are very large.
      Find the expected value and the standard deviation of `hat p`, correct to four decimal places.  (2 marks)
    4. What is the probability that a sample proportion of butterflies that are very large lies within one standard deviation of 0.0527, correct to four decimal places? Do not use a normal approximation.  (2 marks)
  2. The Lorenz birdwing butterfly also lives in Town B.

     

    In a particular sample of Lorenz birdwing butterflies from Town B, an approximate 95% confidence interval for the proportion of butterflies that are very large was calculated to be (0.0234, 0.0866), correct to four decimal places.

     

    Determine the sample size used in the calculation of this confidence interval.  (2 marks)

Show Answers Only
  1. `10/3`
  2. `73`
  3. `0.2878`
  4. `0.1512`
  5. `10.6\ text(cm)`
    1. `0.2947`
    2. `7`
    3. `0.0372`
    4. `0.7380`
  7. `200`
Show Worked Solution
a.    `mu` `= 4/625 int_0^5 x(5x^3 – x^4)\ dx`
    `= 4/625[x^5 – 1/6 x^6]_0^5`
    `= 10/3\ \ \ text{(by CAS)}`

 

b.    `text(Pr)(X > 2)` `= 4/625 int_2^5 5x^3 – x^4\ dx`
    `= 4/625[5/4x^4 – x^5/5]_2^5`
    `= 0.9129…`

 

`:.\ text(Expected number)` `= 80 xx 0.9129…`
  `~~ 73.03`
  `~~ 73`

 

c.    `text(Pr)(X = 4|X> 2)` `= (text(Pr)(X >= 4))/(text(Pr)(X >= 2))`
    `= 0.26272/0.91296`
    `= 0.2878`

 

d.   `W\ ~\ N (14.1, 2.1^2)`

`text(Pr)(16 < W < 18) = 0.1512\ \ \ text{(by CAS)}`

 

e.   `text(Solution 1:)`

`text(Pr)(W < w) = 0.05`

`text(Pr)(Z < z) = 0.05\ \ =>\ \ z = -1.6449\ \ text{(by CAS)}`

`(w – 14.1)/2.1` `= -1.6449`
`w` `= 10.6\ text(cm)`

 
`text(Solution 2:)`

`text(invNorm)`

`text(Tail setting: left)`

`text(prob: 0.05)`

`sigma: 2.1`

`mu: 14.1`

`=> 10.6\ \ \ text{cm (by CAS)}`

 

f.i.   `L\ ~\ text(Bi)(n, p)\ ~\ text(Bi) (36, 0.0527)`

`text(Pr)(L >= 3) ~~ 0.2947`

 

f.ii.    `text(Pr)(L >= n) < 0.01`
 

`text(CAS: binomialCdf) (x, 36, 36, 0.0527)`

`text(Pr)(L >= 0) = 0.011 > 0.01`

`text(Pr)(L >= 7) = 0.002 < 0.01`

`:.\ text(Smallest)\ n = 7`

 

f.iii.    `E(hat p)` `= p = 0.0527`
  `sigma(hat p)` `= sqrt((p(1 – p))/n) = sqrt((0.0527(1 – 0.0527))/36) ~~ 0.0372`

 

f.iv.        `hat p +- 1 sigma: (0.0527 – 0.0372, 0.0527 + 0.0372) = (0.0155, 0.0899)`

`text(Pr)(0.0155 < hat p < 0.0899)`

`= text(Pr)(36 xx 0.0155 < L < 36 xx 0.0899)`

`= text(Pr)(0.56 < L < 3.24)`

`= text(Pr)(1 <= L <= 3)`

`~~ 0.7380`

 

g.   `0.0234 = hat p – 1.96 sqrt((hat p(1 – hat p))/n) qquad text{… (1)}`

`0.0866 = hat p + 1.96 sqrt((hat p(1 – hat p))/n) qquad text{… (2)}`

`text(Solve simultaneous equations:)`

`hat p ~~ 0.055, quad n ~~ 199.96`

`:.\ text(Sample size) = 200`