The eggs laid by the female moths hatch and become caterpillars.
The following time series plot shows the total area, in hectares, of forest eaten by the caterpillars in a rural area during the period 1900 to 1980.
The data used to generate this plot is also given.
The association between area of forest eaten by the caterpillars and year is non-linear.
A log10 transformation can be applied to the variable area to linearise the data.
- When the equation of the least squares line that can be used to predict log10 (area) from year is determined, the slope of this line is approximately 0.0085385
- Round this value to three significant figures. (1 mark)
- Perform the log10 transformation to the variable area and determine the equation of the least squares line that can be used to predict log10 (area) from year.
- Write the values of the intercept and slope of this least squares line in the appropriate boxes provided below.
- Round your answers to three significant figures. (2 marks)
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The least squares line predicts that the log10 (area) of forest eaten by the caterpillars by the year 2020 will be approximately 2.85
- Using this value of 2.85, calculate the expected area of forest that will be eaten by the caterpillars by the year 2020.
- i. Round your answer to the nearest hectare. (1 mark)
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- ii. Give a reason why this prediction may have limited reliability. (1 mark)
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